The Official Danica Patrick Fan Site

My Name is IRL speculates on Danica's Future

http://www.mynameisirl.com/2009/06/danica-and-my-crystal-balls.html

We all have seen the failed prognostication attempts of IMS Radio lead MIKE KING and his crystal balls. It takes a lot for a guy like KING to repeatedly go out on a limb with predictions, especially when one risks risks having the failed attempts repeatedly brought up by some crazed word butcher. I admire him, but I've also noticed he's not made many predictions in print as of late.

Well, your humble host has decided to gaze into his own crystal balls to derive the future, because I have finally cracked at reading the umteenth "Danica to N-word" articles. Is it even a story to have a marketing rep throw around random unquantifiable numbers by saying that if she decided to race stock cars it would bring $50 Million to Brian France's series? Apparently so.

Enough is enough. We're still in wild speculation mode, but since everyone else is speculating and a few of you have been asking me my opinion via emails and tweets it seems I need to write this post answering the question "Where do you think Danica will be next year?" Not to impress you with my ability of foretelling of the future - I'll leave that to NostraBeekhuis - but rather in the interest of public service. You see, I'm not going to just tell you what I think, *dramatic Jack Arute voice* I'm going to show you WHY I think it.

So here is the evidence for answering the question "Where is Danica going?".

Exhibit A: During her racing career Danica has said about a billion times "I want to win". Actually it's usually been more like "I really, really want to win", because without the "really"s she sounds like Hideki Mutoh or Oriol Servia. You need to add the extra adverbs to show you're a top tier driver.

Exhibit B: Danica is not just a driver; she's also a brand. This is the single most important consideration, because if you think about how Danica has gotten to where she is now it's been significantly more because of her brand than her driving. Not to slight (much less enter into a debate about) her driving ability, the fact is she's spent nearly her entire IRL career in top-level equipment despite having a single win. That's the brand talking, or rather paying for her opportunities, and it's on par with any other driver in this country.

In order for the brand to continue though she has to win more races. She's doesn't necessarily have to be the most dominant driver on the track, but she needs to continue progressing by winning races because without the wins the brand diminishes in it's ability to attract sponsors who will help pay the racing bills.

It's important to look at these two Exhibits first, because this is how even Danica has said she's going to determine where she goes. As someone who already has a pocketful of sponsors it doesn't seem likely that she's looking for her next ride as simply a cash grab. Granted this is a huge presumption on my part, but this isn't Sam Hornish Jr who we're talking about. This is the driver in every other commercial in IndyCar races.

Exhibit C: And with that I present to you something I came across entirely by accident. On the flight to Indianapolis this year the guy next to me was reading the May 2009 issue of "N****R Illustrated". When he was done he asked me if I wanted it, and I would have declined were it not for a picture in the upper right of you-know-who asking "Danica Patrick: N****R bound?". Here's one important quote from the article:

NI: What are the key issues you have to consider (for future racing commitments)?

DP: The most important thing is that I know where I want to be and what I want to be doing. Then it comes down to where I have the best option of running up front. It has to be a very competitive team.
OK, Danica Patrick has spent her entire life in open-wheel racing, from go-karts to IndyCars. Never driven so much as a bomber on a Friday night. What would be the logical presumption of "what I want to be doing"? I'll let you figure that out, and while you think about let me note that only once in the interview does she use the world every other open-wheel jumper used - "challenge" - and in that context she notes "anything new takes time".

So you think the "Danica" brand could wait a few years while sponsors wait to see if she can learn how to drive sufficiently with a loose 3500-pound stock car? Me neither.

Exhibit D: By the way, if you need more proof about "what I want to be doing" is, check this from a recent interview of Danica's with the intrepid Curt Cavin.

"From the first time that I came into IndyCar, I think (I've wanted) to win races as much as possible, to win the Indy 500, to win a championship," she said. "Those are all goals for me from the beginning, it's just that they're probably more realistic now.

"I can't say they're any different; it's just that they're happening."
That seems to speak for itself.

Exhibit E: Alright, suppose if we will that Danica Patrick has decided to race stock cars in the hopes it will bring her a bazillion dollars. For which team would she drive? Sprint Cup teams are limited to four drivers, and there are no more than three or four that can actually put her in a contending ride.

Hendrick is is stocked with Johnson, Gordon, Junior, and the recently renewed contract of Mark Martin. Jack Roush has five drivers for his existing four cars. Joe Gibbs is already developing Joey Logano, so the odds of him taking on two development project seem slim. Perhaps Stewart-Haas would take her, but is a development project something Tony Stewart wants to take on in his second year as an owner?

Suffice it to say right now there isn't an obvious stock car team for Danica.

Exhibit F: Meanwhile, the IndyCar series, where she has already demonstrated to be an accomplished driver, has but two teams that can win races. Team Penske though has two cars and three drivers, and even if they were interested in starting a third team it would be awkward for Penske and his longtime sponsor. Imagine the possibility if Danica won more races than the nameless cigarette company driver did. It's unlikely, but these are the scenarios Roger Penske prepares for every waking hour, and his best preparation is to leave well enough alone.

The other team though is Target Chip Ganassi racing, and that dear friends is where things get interesting.

Exhibit G: Robin Miller says Scott Dixon is talking to Gil de Ferran about joining a new IndyCar team headed by de Ferran. Now why on earth would Dixon be looking at different teams when he has an entry that could put him in Victory Lane in any given race? Well, Chip sorta gave a reason in the most recent issue of ESPN the Magazine.

No wonder team owner Chip Ganassi was, shall we say, less than enthusiastic when Dixon and wife Emma announced they were expecting their first child right around the same time as the July 12 Streets of Toronto race. "I've seen having kids slow down more guys than I've seen it speed them up," Ganassi says. "The guys at the top, the great drivers, seem to slow down."
This could be posturing because Chip (or as other have called him, "Cheap") Ganassi doesn't want to pay Dixon a huge amount to driver for him. Or it could be that Chip has another more cost-effective driver in mind. Or it could be that Chip's longtime sponsor is possibly expressing an interest towards a particular driver. Or it could be all of the above, none of which seems very far fetched.

Exhibit H: As you know, My Name Is IRL has a few sources. Back in March I got an email from one of them that quoted an AGR crew member as saying Danica's people were already inquiring with Chip Ganassi. This isn't evidence of anything since it's like fourth- or fifth-handed info to you, but since that email it has been obvious that Danica and her new marketing team have been working on her, uh, display of personality. Bunnies and rainbows, to be exact. Danica's even baking cookies, which for all I know means she's trying to garner a Betty Crocker sponsorship to help pay for her racing endeavors, but if you were an IndyCar driver walking around with an unparalleled pocketful of sponsorships you'd probably be taking that money to buy the best ride you could find. And we've already determined who would be on that short list.

Exhibit I: Did anyone else notice Marco getting tense with Danica after racing each other late in the race at Texas? Yes? All of you did, right? When was the last time an Andretti got that riled up about a member of the AGR team? That would be the next to last race of '07, when Marco and Michael expressed how upset they were with Dario Franchitti...right before he signed with Chip Ganassi to drive stock cars.

And that was going to be the end of it all, until this afternoon when I found this story brought to our attention by Will of is it May yet?.

Exhibit J: From, of all places, BevNet.

On the heels of a successful Indy 500, HER Energy has partnered with Grocers Supply Company, Inc. for distribution, covering all of Indiana and four surrounding states. The new distributor supports key regions where the beverage is already found at select Target and SuperTarget stores, enhancing the brand's Midwest presence. This expands HER's availability from select Target stores in 37 states, distribution by Viking Beverages in Minnesota and Wisconsin, Albertsons in Florida and boutiques and C Stores throughout Southern California and New York.

HER sponsored an Indy car in this year's Indy 500, qualifying on Day One and finishing the race in 13th place. "May was a great month for the brand and one of the great things to come out of it was a new partnership with Grocers Supply. We were impressed by their enthusiasm and experience, and their ability to act as both a wholesaler and distributor" noted HER CEO Brett Jacobson.

HER expects to run a full season in the Indycar series for 2010.
Let's see: HER is an energy drink for women sold in target stores. This sounds like excellent news for HER drive Alex Lloyd. Oh wait, he announced he has resigned from Ganassi's team today. Well then who could possibly be in line to drive a HER car?

So based on the evidence that's what I see right now. Maybe she goes to drive stock cars, maybe she stays with AGR, or maybe she decides to take up Pro Bass fishing. The evidence points to one team that already is capable of winning, one that would give here sponsor awareness in one of the biggest retailers across the nation, and one that gives her a very real chance at winning three or four races per year. I believe they call that "synergy".

And if I'm wrong then I'll join MIKE KING in the fortune-telling unemployment line.

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Comment by dzeri on July 7, 2009 at 7:22pm: I agree with the reasons "why going to F1 instead of NASCAR"

Comment by Damon on June 22, 2009 at 7:23am: Hey Reggie, just for you.......some more Danica to F1 stuff (BTW- Have they even contacted her yet?) :

http://www.setanta.com/uk/Articles/other-sports/2009/06/22/F1-Windsor-on-Patrick-row/gnid-57845/

Patrick battling for USF1 drive
by Dave Maher , 22 June 2009

Danica Patrick is battling to secure a race drive with Team USF1 for 2010, as the outfit prepares for its first year in Formula 1.

The IndyCar Series racer faces plenty of competition for one of the two race drives with the new team, but she seems to be a strong position.

“We’re getting near to the point where we start looking at drivers, and Danica is on our list for sure, because she’s the best-placed American in the leading single-seater championship of the United States,” Team USF1’s sporting director, Peter Windsor, told GPWeek. “She’s going a really great job.

“There are some other great drivers out there: Marco Andretti, Graham Rahal, Ryan Hunter-Reay, Jonathan Summerton... the list goes on. There are some really good guys and we’ve got to start focusing on that.

“It’s not going to be easy for us but we do have an opportunity to give a young American a chance that they would never have had in a million years with any other F1team.”

Windsor is not overly concerned with the current battle ongoing in F1, with the Formula One Teams’ Association (FOTA) threatening to break away from the FIA in order to create its own championship.

“I think we’re a long way from two championships being reality and at the moment the only game on the table is the FIA championship,” he said.

“Formula 1 is a very changeable business and as a new team coming into the sport, having the entry is a great thing, we’re not at the moment saying these are the regulations and this is the car we’re building to the regulations.

“We are open to the political instability and we’re building various iterations of the car based around the ways we think the regulations could go.”

Comment by Damon on June 11, 2009 at 5:59am: From Auto Racing Daily, Jerry Bonkowski says, not so fast.......

Could Danica Spurn NASCAR For Formula One?

By Jerry Bonkowski
Jun 10, 2009

It’s no coincidence that Danica Patrick’s contract with Andretti Green Racing is due to expire at the end of this year and rumors are increasing about her moving from the IndyCar Series to NASCAR.

Let me throw a curve ball into the mix.

Given slipping TV ratings and at-track attendance, sponsorship issues and other maladies that the sport is trying to fight through, I’m betting Patrick is using the possibility of moving to NASCAR as a bargaining chip.

But not to return to Indy Cars. Thanks to a very well-placed motorsports source in Germany, what would you say if I told you Patrick may be trying to work both the IRL and NASCAR to leverage a high-profile ride in Formula One?

No, I’m not crazy. Hear me out:

* Why become a big fish in a small pond of NASCAR and in the U.S., when she can literally have the world at her beck-and-call as the most visible competitor in F1 after reigning champ Lewis Hamilton? Because European workplace attitudes towards females are more primitive than in this country, Patrick could literally be a vehicle for change, much like President Obama has been in this country. And despite the current global economic crisis, Patrick would be a magnet for sponsorship dollars that she could only dream about if she were to go to NASCAR.

* To assure proper sponsorship and building infrastructure around her, regardless of which racing series she winds up in, Patrick is going to have to make a decision probably in the next month or so, at the very least. When she signed with AGR three years ago, she inked her contract on July 25, 2006. If an F1 team(s) is serious about Patrick, they’ll have to start moving soon on a potential contract.

* While male egos at McLaren and BMW would likely keep her from being hired on at either of those locales, Patrick might even have a shot at Ferrari, as well as a number of other teams that would be very interested in her, including the budding U.S. F1 team that hopes to start racing next season. Some might consider that a risky move, but it would meld the best of both worlds for her – even though I still think she’d wind up with a more established team.

* Virgin Airlines chairman Richard Branson is rumored to be drooling at the chance of getting Patrick under contract. Again, think of the sponsorship possibilities, particularly with Branson using her as the star of worldwide ad campaigns for his airline and other businesses. Why would she settle for being touted from Loudon to Fontana when she could have her face plastered on billboards from London to Beijing?

* Many in F1 would love to see Patrick fail in a high-profile role – which is all the more incentive for her to go over the big pond and prove the naysayers wrong. She has that kind of chutzpah. Why waste it in her homeland when she can prove the world wrong.

* Having recently signed with management and marketing powerhouse IMG, Patrick will have everything managed for her in such a way to maximize her looks and fan appeal – even if she winds up not being able to drive an F1 car worth a damn. Then again, what happens if she somehow DOES win in F1? Her popularity would soar to heights that would make her one of the highest profile females in the world, not just one of the highest profile female racers.

* Like NASCAR needs Dale Earnhardt Jr. to rebound to help the fortunes of the sanctioning body, F1 is a shell of what it used to be. And even though Bernie Ecclestone once called Patrick a “kitchen appliance,” she could singlehandedly become F1’s savior. Wouldn’t that be ironic?

* One of Patrick’s current major sponsors, GoDaddy.com, could rule the online world internationally, especially when you consider that only 21 percent of China’s one-billion plus population is online, and only 7 percent of India’s population is online. That leaves a potential customer base of, oh, 2 BILLION people that it could eventually serve as primary Web provider (regardless of China’s limitations on Web access).

* She previously raced in England in her younger, developing days, so she already knows a great deal about the F1 structure and culture.

* If stock cars are too heavy or difficult for Patrick – who is what, maybe 100 pounds soaking wet? – to handle, what better way to take the next big step in her racing career than to segue to F1, which are essentially Indy cars on steroids.

* Even though she is still one of the most lusted-after female athletes in the U.S., Patrick has to remember that beauty can be fleeting, especially with each passing year. If she really wants to be taken seriously as a race car driver and not always be labeled as a good-looking woman who just happens to race cars, moving to F1 would be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. If she passes on it now, she may never have another chance like this again.

* Patrick may become the target of scorn and contempt in NASCAR, particularly among her potentially soon-to-be future driving competitors. If she’s going to put up with scorn and contempt, it’d be much better – and more lucratively worth it – to do it on a world stage. Plus, think of all the women internationally that she would not only become a role model for, they’d also be the source of support for both her, which she needs, and F1, which desperately needs it.

* Sure, Patrick could still go to NASCAR and ignore any potential overtures from F1. She could get a deal much like Roger Penske gave Sam Hornish Jr.: try it and let’s see what happens. On top of that, she could have it written into her contract with whichever NASCAR team she’d wind up with that she’d be able to race in the Indianapolis 500 every year.

* Chip Ganassi and Jack Roush have been among those mentioned as potential owners that could lure Patrick into their NASCAR stables. Wouldn’t there be a bit of irony, particularly with Ganassi, if Patrick came to NASCAR and raced for Earnhardt Ganassi Racing, the same team that spurned Dale Jr. into moving to Hendrick Motorsports?

Yes, I know a lot of what I’ve suggested here is just hyperbole and “what-if” scenarios, but one thing I’ve learned in covering motorsports for nearly a quarter-century is that nothing is too outlandish or out of the question.

So, if Danica goes to F1 instead of NASCAR, don’t say I didn’t tell you here first.

Posted by Jerry Bonkowski on 06/10 at 09:54 PM

Comment by DanicaFans on June 10, 2009 at 11:23pm: ^^^ All except for the bear hug when she wins.

Comment by chrisjacobs7 on June 10, 2009 at 10:27pm: I LOVE the idea of DP signing with Ganassi.

Comment by Reggie on June 10, 2009 at 10:16pm: LOL, I didn't write that one, that was actually the brainchild of Jeff Ianucci at MyNameIsIRL.com

Comment by nebraska on June 10, 2009 at 9:41pm: Reggie.......Congrat's on a well written and very thought out post....Looks like you put alot of thought and work into it.....Thank You for that.....I hope you are right!!!!!!!

But, I just want to point out and to add just one more important thing that you left out....You covered so much it just probibly slipped your mind for a second.....So, I will just follow up on one more thing .....You left off with Exhibit J...So, I will just add one more thing if you don't mind.....

Exhibit K:......# 7 and Dario not only have alot of respect for each other as drivers.....They like each other and are friends....Chip Ganassi knows this.....So, he knows that the both of them would work very well togeather as a team......No Drama.....

I think that would also play a part somewhat in the mind of Ganassi. If he were putting all the pieces togeather in coming to a decision on whether or not to pull the trigger and sign # 7....

Anyway Reggie....Thanks again for the great post and all your hard work....Great Job my friend....

Comment by Damon on June 10, 2009 at 6:54pm: This was along the same lines of what I was thinking, Don.

2 years with Ganassi, but doing a Nascar deal would be with Hendrick, running the #5 car in selected Nationwide races in 2010 since she and Dale Jr. share the same sponsor (GoDaddy), then doing the same thing in 2011 and take over for Mark Martin the 5 car at Hendrick in 2012, full-time but your plan works too.

Comment by DanicaFans on June 10, 2009 at 5:41pm: And to follow up on that, here is Pressdog's take on it, followed by a very interesting comment by H. B. Donnelly:

Random Danica to Target Chip Ganassi Speculation

Based on exactly no insider knowledge a'tall, what about this:

Item 1: Chippy Ganassi tosses Alex Lloyd aside like an empty beer can, drained of its flavor and enjoyment. OK that's wild speculation. But Alex did announce today via Twitter -- which is how all the cool people announce things -- that he was parting ways with Chippy. Lack of funding blamed. Need to be a free agent to find any ride a'tall cited.

Item 2: Alex's leaving (for whatever reason) helps Chippy clear some budget cap/funding possibilities to focus on ... dun-dun-daahhhhh .. Danica Patrick.

Credit for this kernel of supposedness goes to Jeff Iannucci of MyNameIsIRL.com who first supposed Danica could take her sponsorship to any team, including one of the Big 2 as a third car, which was a new concept for me. Read Jeff's fuller dissertation on his theory HERE.

Jeff is probably onto something there, since Danica's sponsors could give a flip about Andretti Green Racing. They're all about Danica, preferably with a winning team, which Target Chip Ganassi is and AGR increasingly is not.

Item 3: As I (and I'm sure others) have opined previously, the thing that missing from Brand Danica is WINS. Especially winning the Big One (Indy 500).

Item 4: While Danica would be instantly and insanely rich, she would go to the bottom of the feeder system in N-word, and not be likely to win for several years.

Put all those items together, and you have Danica going to the only teams that are a step up from where she is now, and that's Penske and TCG.

Item 5: Robin Miller, who is rarely completely wrong, reports vibes that Scott Dixon will bolt from the Chippy Crew in 2010. You may think that's a load of rubbish, as my homeys in the UK say, but explain then Dan Wheldon getting sacked by Chippy at the end of 2008. Curiouser and curiouser.

Item 6: Cue the black helicopters and get them hovering over TCG headquarters to see if Danica or (more likely) her designee is spotted going in or out. Poof -- Danica to Ganassi to replace Dixon OR with her insane sponsorship cash to make a third car.

Mull that one over.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
H. B. Donnelly:

How about this for a little best-of-all-worlds action while we're wildly speculating here. Danica is signed by El Chipster after Scott Dixon runs off to the other end of pit lane to hang out with good buddy Gil. She is signed to run full-time with the IndyCar program, which is only the most sensible thing. However, she also takes on a very limited NASCAR deal for like...the Daytona 500 and maybe a couple other high-profile races, but nothing that will turn out as a full-time deal. THEN, she also gets a part-timer for Chippy's Grand Am team, which is easily one of the best in that series, for the 24-hr and perhaps the 6-hr deal at Watkins Glen. Danica is pushed onto race fans in all markets (not literally...which might be nice, i guess), Target gets lots of valuable Danica time, and she has a legit shot at winning three of the four biggeest races in America (which are the 500, the Taxicab-bump-and-draft-big-one 500, Daytona 24, and Sebring 12). Once again, I post a disclaimer of totally wild speculation here.